Apart from actual tectonic activity in the Garden State, namely a series of tremors stemming from a 4.8 quake that shook New Jerseyans, to a meteor which tore across the sky over New York City and New Jersey Tuesday, there have been more than a few shake-ups in the political realm as well this year. The epicenter of New Jersey’s political shockwaves has unquestionably been its senior US Senator, Robert Menendez, but, as in April’s seismic activity, more than a few shocks have rocked political observers from other sectors as well. Below will seek to serve as something of a chronological tickertape of New Jersey’s political seismography in the arena of elected officials.

Menendez Corruption Charges Redux: Senator Menendez survived a mistrial following corruption charges in 2017 and investigations over the years. Re-elected, federal prosecutors brought another set of corruption charges against Menendez last year. Whereas in 2017, Democratic lawmakers and party officials largely stood in solidarity with the senator, 2023 apparently had been the last straw. What followed was a chorus of calls from Democratic lawmakers demanding his resignation.  Menendez rebuffed those calls, doggedly asserted his innocence, and planned to mount a vigorous defense.  Soon, however, it became clear that Menendez would be abandoned and not enjoy party support for the 2024 election, one of the most high-stakes presidential election years in American history, with anxiety already high in both parties. What followed would set in motion a series of events that would have ramifications and reshape the state’s political landscape, where Menendez had been one of the most powerful New Jersey figures as well as one of the most influential voices in the US Senate.

Andy Kim Enters The Statewide Stage: Shortly after Menendez’s charges were made public, Democrats turned against their incumbent senator and were preparing to go shopping for a new candidate. Eyes starting to turn towards the First Lady, Tammy Murphy, who had yet to announce a candidacy.  CD-3’s Representative Andy Kim, however, immediately launched a campaign to run against the embattled Menendez in the Democratic primary.  At the time, it seemed implausible that the Burlington-based Millennial congressman, elected in 2018, would gain major traction with the Democratic County party organizations and the coveted ‘line’ designations they had control over.  That would soon change.

First Lady Tammy Murphy Jumps into The Senate Race:  The First Lady announced her candidacy for Senate in November of 2023, and initially was seen as a Democratic frontrunner given her statewide status, credibility, and ability to fundraise.  The fact that she and her husband, Governor Phil Murphy, had close relationships and sway with county party leaders, the prevailing assumption among many was that she would get most, if not all, of the county lines. By this logic, she would knock out any challengers, including the already-campaigning Kim.  But, the Democratic rank-and-file and progressive wings said “not so fast.” Her position as First Lady and lack of political experience would fuel the fire against her among skeptical Democrats.

Two To Tango – Andy Kim Versus Tammy Murphy, And The Underlying Democratic Battle: The Democratic Senate primary, for as long as it lasted, became a focal point for Democratic Party leaders and the rank-and-file. The two main candidates, Murphy and Kim, began campaigning across the state.  While Democratic Party leaders generally coalesced around Murphy, she proved to be an underwhelming candidate, while Kim gained traction among the rank-and-file and progressive base of the party.  Part of it was process. Regular voters didn’t like what they perceived to be the heavy-handed support of the establishment in favor of the First Lady: being spoon-fed the governor’s wife. To some, it took on the image of another budding political dynasty in New Jersey, and they responded sourly to the thought that the Governor was trying to ramrod his wife into one of the highest elected statewide offices, without having served in any lower offices prior.  As the campaign went on, Murphy suffered several defeats at open conventions, most notably in Monmouth County – her home county, no less – to Kim.  Congressman Kim won a few lines himself, despite railing against it on the campaign trail as an unfair tool of the party establishment.  The primary quickly became a perceived battle between that very “establishment” and the “Democratic rank-and-file.”  Across the state, Democratic county chairs were becoming skittish, with the more perceptive among them being attuned to the ground level dynamics.  Indeed, some even began murmuring their wish that Murphy would abandon her campaign. While Kim was vying for the county lines he also wanted to dissolve, and holding well-attended town halls and meet-and-greets, he and several other candidates took action in the courts to break the Democratic Party’s biggest electoral carrot, the coveted “line.” A lawsuit was filed which challenged the constitutionality of the primary ballot—for the Democratic Party at least.  Another previously unthinkable act had come to be. For many, especially those who were firmly entrenched in the Democratic political universe of the state, it was unthinkable that the county parties’ could lose their ability to wield the power of the line.

The End of the Line: One of the biggest political earthquakes to occur in state history took place on March 29 when US District Judge Zahid Quraishi delivered a gift to Kim and those opposed to the “line” on the ballots by ruling that the line was, in fact, unconstitutional.  Despite protests by county clerks that they wouldn’t have time to adapt the ballots (but, in fact, they did find a way), the 2024 Democratic primary ballots were restructured, while the GOP county line remained in-tact for the primary, although that will likely be challenged in the future, given the precedent.  This marked a huge victory for Kim and his allies, for this particular race, and a loss for the First Lady, whose campaign depended on having those lines.  More broadly, the ruling was a loss for Democratic Party organizations that relied upon the power of the line to deliver victories to their preferred candidates.  Without that “safety net” or form of approval, so to speak, defenders of the line argued these organizations would have to rely upon a strengthened work ethic, messaging, and strategy to ensure their backed candidates would win. Opponents of the line called it a victory for the democratic process. Unique to New Jersey until the ruling, the New Jersey Republican line is now the only such instance in the entire United States.

Tammy Sounds the Retreat:  Seeing a diminished path to victory, and not wanting to expend additional financial resources while creating disunity within the Democratic Party, the First Lady bowed out of the primary in April.  It was a stunning turn of events, and effectively handed Kim the nomination.

The Big Kim Win: Following the line lawsuit, Kim was the favorite to win the Democratic Senate nomination and had county party support—even after having led the charge to abolish the line, which stoked resentment among many in the party establishment.  He would still face Patricia Campos Medina, who would wage a respectable campaign, and Larry Hamm in the primary. But there was little doubt after Murphy’s departure from the race that Kim would emerge victorious to face his Republican challenger, Curtis Bashaw.

The Battle Along the Passaic:  Tremors, political or geologic, radiate out in all directions and nothing can avoid feeling those effects.  Following the end of the line, there were numerous questions as to the power and effectiveness of the county party organizations without the line, and this was no more evident than in the Passaic County Democratic Party primary for Sheriff and the County Commissioner (formerly called freeholder) seats.  The biggest political battle in the county since the 2010 sheriff’s race and 2012 congressional primary was taking shape. Chairman John Currie’s party organization faced off against an aggressive challenge from former Sheriff Jerry Speziale, Paterson Public Safety Director, and his own slate of commission candidates.  After screenings, Currie backed political newcomer Chief Thomas Adamo, incumbent Commissioners Lazzara and Bartlett, and Rodney De Vore.  It was an intense campaign, with over $1M spent, a ramped up social media campaign, a constant barrage of negative mailers—some effectual, some absurd—garnering media attention from both sides.  While the battle was acutely personal between Currie and Speziale and their respective allies, it was also widely seen as a test of the county party organization deprived of the line in the heat of a very real political war.  In the end, Currie’s organization beat back the insurgent challenge by a healthy margin, and showed in the process that hard work, discipline, strategy, and candidates may, in fact, matter more than the line itself.

Presidential Politics – Biden Versus Trump:  In an already tense atmosphere, presidential politics has been on the forefront of everyone’s mind this year, with a heightened sense of urgency since the beginning of the summer with the first presidential debate.  It seems each day brings with it a new national earthquake that roils the race: former President Trump’s conviction on 34 charges during his hush money case, President Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling, the weeks of Democratic hand-wringing over Biden’s abilities—and subsequent discussions about possibly even removing him from the ticket, the attempted assassination of Trump, the dismissal of the documents case against Trump by Judge Aileen Cannon, and Trump’s pick of Senator JD Vance as his running mate.  All of these things happened over the course of only a few weeks, making Americans wonder what new tumult the next few weeks bring us, let along the next four months?  If the last few weeks are any indication, then it could be anything and everything.

Presidential Politics in the Garden State: Considering the above, there has been some polling which indicates that former President Trump could make inroads into the reliably deep-blue Garden State where registered Democrats have a nearly one-million lead on their rolls over Republicans.  National Republicans and Trump himself have suggested that the state is in play.  While this doesn’t seem likely, given the still-huge Democratic advantage, some polls have shown a close presidential contest here.  July is still early, and a lot can change in the remaining months, but the biggest question that Democrats and Republicans must be asking themselves now is: if it’s even a little closer than usual this year, how will that affect the down-ballot races, namely, the congressional, county races, and local offices?

The Norcross Indictment:  In yet another blow to the political powerbroker class, the AG’s Office announced corruption charges against South Jersey boss and insurance magnate George Norcross III, in addition to several others.  Norcross’ influence has been on the decline in recent years, owing in part to his early clashes with Governor Murphy, and the loss of legislative seats in the South.  Norcross plans to vigorously defend himself against Attorney General Matt Platkin’s charges, with his attorneys decrying it as a political hit job.  Whatever the outcome may be, and while Norcross is defiant, it is arguably the lowest point for the powerbroker.  It also continues to reshape the “North vs. South” narrative that had become a key feature of state politics for over a decade.

The Menendez Conviction:  Senator Menendez’s 50-year career reached its nadir with his conviction on corruption charges on Monday, July 15, amid a chorus of calls for his resignation and the very real possibility of the US Senate using its power of expulsion—something Governor Phil Murphy urged the legislators to do if Menendez did not voluntarily resign.  If expelled, Governor Murphy can appoint a temporary replacement, possibly even Congressman Kim, to give him a leg up in the general election as an incumbent.  It would also give him a seniority boost above the rest of the incoming Senate freshmen.  Republicans have cried foul of such an act, however, arguing it would unduly favor the Democratic candidate over Bashaw by putting him, even if temporarily, into the Senate seat.  Democrats effectively abandoned Senator Menendez since the charges were announced, but he rebuffed initial resignation calls, and appears stubbornly dug-in, following his conviction.  While the Democratic Party at large believes that justice has been served, Menendez contends that he is innocent and plans to appeal the charges.  But what will his legacy be?  Undoubtedly, he will be remembered for the corruption trials above all, and rightly so.  He also leaves a policy legacy, and also ensured that his family name will carry on in New Jersey politics.  His son, Robert Menendez, Jr., sits as the CD-8 congressman, and despite the legal challenges facing his father, and his name, he convincingly won his primary race against Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in June.  As a felony charge is not a bar to seeking office, the convicted US Senator can still seek re-election this year, and is mounting an independent re-election bid.  Whether he continues to do so remains to be seen.  While political observers assert he has virtually no chance of winning back his seat, the question becomes this: with presidential politics headlining this year’s election, and with a potentially closer race than expected, does Menendez on the ballot become a spoiler to any degree?

The 2025 Senate Race – Kim Versus Bashaw:  NJ Republicans have nominated a moderate hotelier, Curtis Bashaw, who is openly-gay and pro-choice.  Bashaw convincingly won the GOP primary, and, by all accounts, appears to be well-suited and well-financed for the general election this November.  Should Menendez stay in the race, it could provide a real headache for Rep. Kim by siphoning off some votes, which is exactly what the NJ GOP and Bashaw are counting on.  Jersey City Mayor Fulop, a Menendez-nemesis going back to Fulop’s primary challenge when the Senator was still in the House, said to Politico NJ that, “every percent [Menendez] gets is coming from an Andy Kim voter. In a close race, he could do a lot of damage.” That dynamic could, at least perceivably, make this a much closer—and much more interesting—contest.

All Eyes On Guv ‘25:  With no major upsets expected among congressional politics in the Garden State due to redistricting (with the exception of CD-7, which has national attention), all eyes are on the gubernatorial politics ahead of the 2025 primary season, which may yet seem like an eternity in the lens of contemporary politics.  On the Democratic side, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, former Senate President Steve Sweeney, and Newark Mayor Baraka are all declared candidates.  Potential candidacies by Representatives Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer (apparently with Hudson County support) are also looming large on the horizon.  On the Republican side, NJ101.5 radio host Bill Spadea, former Assemblyman and 2021 gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, Senator Jon Bramnick, and former Senator Ed Durr have launched their own candidacies, with other potential candidates still to come.  Republicans are bullish, pointing to the 2021 election which saw Governor Murphy carry the state by only 3 points against Ciattarelli, a razor-thin margin in the blue state, and the wipeout of several Democratic incumbents, including former Senate President Sweeney and his Assemblymen.  Yet, Democrats held onto congressional seats in the supposed “red wave” of 2022.  While legislative losses were anticipated in 2023, Democrats actually picked up some seats, held in battleground areas, picked up Assembly seats in LD-11, and regained L-D3.  New Jerseyans still have to get through the presidential contest, which will undoubtedly offer clues as to the electorate’s preferences (or electoral volatility), heading into the gubernatorial year afterward.  One wonders as to the composition of the future primaries: will there be a game-changing candidate in the wings, somewhere, in either party?  Is there a frontrunner already or is the nascent race mostly defined, at this moment, by circumstance and the inescapable national headwinds?  How nasty will these primaries get, in an open gubernatorial year, dirtying up the eventual nominees?  How will the race develop over the next few months and into the beginning of 2025?  The political landscape has been altered at the national and state levels over the past six months, past six weeks, and even the past six days.  Lacking working crystal balls to foretell the future, no one knows what developments will occur that shake up the political ground going forward.  We can only be assured, however, that they will.